CONCEPTS OF INFLATION AND TRADE CYCLES (Macro Economics)
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I heartily welcome you to read about the concept of inflation, It's Types, causes along with measurements or precautions to control inflation and also the concept of trade cycles, causes/phases, Phillips curve (Related to inflation and employment), Deflation and Stagflation.
Note
Link each topic to the Economy and write the reasons equally which are responsible to a consequence such as inflation. recurring reasons to a topic is ok. Think wider because it is aggregate value. Relate each concept.
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Concept of inflation
Inflation refers to an increase in general price level is called as inflation. It is a situation in which general price levels rises. the purchasing power of money will decreases or the value of money falls down. It is a continues rise in price value due to more supply of money in the market.
simply, it's a situation where there is more availability of money than the availability of goods produced in the country. Inflation is the important concept in the scope of Macro Economics.
According to Keynes Inflation is not good for economy.
Definitions
The term Inflation is defined by many Economists in different ways but, all the definitions tells the same point.
- "Issue of too much currency is inflation" Professor. Hawtrey.
- "Too much money is chasing too few goods is called inflation" Dalton And Colborn.
- "Persistent and appreciable rise in the general or average of price is called inflation" Gardner Ackley.
- "Inflation occurs when the volume of money increases faster than the available supply of goods" Irving Fisher.
- "Inflation is a phenomenon which is always and every where a monetary phenomenon" M. Friedman.
- "It is a state in which the value of money is falling i.e. prices are rising is called inflation" Crowther.
Types of inflation
Classification of inflation
- Creeping inflation: According to Prof.Kent prices will not increase more than 3% in an year. It is also known as Mildest inflation. It will not be increased immediately and not noticeable quickly. if it rises continuously; It may rise slowly to higher level and will become a problem to Economy.
- Walking inflation: in this type of inflation there is an increase in price level up to 3 to 5% in an year. It is not a problem for the economy but when it starts increasing at more than 4% immediately the central bank is concern and takes measures.
- Running inflation: Here price level increases around 10% in an year. It results in more cost in the production process in the economy. It may result in rapid growth of inflation.
- Hyper or Galloping inflation: when price levels increases rapidly (Continuously) we call it as hyper inflation. Here price level increases more than 10% in an year. there is no other measurement for inflation from this point. Galloping inflation is a very challenging for economies. Hyper inflation causes a fast increase in price level and rapidly declines the value of money.
Other concepts in inflation
- Suppressed inflation: When government controls the rate of inflation, the prices will decrease. when government doesn't regulate price levels; again it results in increase of inflation.
- Stagflation: It is also a type of inflation in the economy. In this case the economic activities (Production process) comes down but wages and price rates increases rapidly. inflationary recession is also one of the name to stagflation. Inflation + Stagnation = Stagflation.
- Reflation: It refers to a situation in a country where there are number of unemployed and unutilised resources. It results in increase of unemployment.
- disinflation: refers to falling of prices without effecting production process.
- True inflation or Real inflation: It refers to an increase in general price level after reaching full employment. It was introduced by J.M Keynes.
Causes for inflation
- Demand push inflation
- Cost push inflation
- Mixed inflation
- Unproductive expenditure by the government
- Exports
- Trading: Reserve of goods by the traders.
- Population: continuous growth
- Natural resources
- Skilled labour (human resource)
Demand push inflation
- increase of government (GOVT) expenditure
- Rapid growth of population
- Deficit budgeting: when expenditure is more than revenue
- High rate of consumption
- increase in exports
- repayment of internal debt
- over supply of money
Cost push inflation
There are 4 factors which are responsible to Cost push inflation. they are:
- Increase in wages
- imposition of heavy taxes by the government
- increase in the cost of raw material
- increase in profit
Mixed inflation
- Increase in demand
- scarcity in supply
- Natural calamities (Natural disasters)
- Barriers to international trading (High prices)
- Government policies (favourable and not favourable)
Unproductive expenditure by the government
Exports
population
Trading
Natural resources
Effects of inflation or impact of inflation on the economy
Impact on distribution of income and wealth
- Creditors and debtors: Creditors lose the value of money when they receive at the time of high rate of inflation then normal times or low level of inflation. whereas, debtors gain the value because they will repay the amount with same value of currency at that time of inflation. It loses its power of purchase.
- Producers and workers: Producers gain on the time of inflation because, they earn more profit by selling their products for more amount as their cost of production is high. workers lose because the wages also decreases and the purchasing power of their income decreases. even if wages increases, the purchasing power of that income/money cannot rise equally according to inflation rate.
- Fixed income earners: Fixed income earners includes regular salaried people, rent earners, landlords, pensioners(without participating in economic activities),, etc. These people suffers highly because The increase in price reduces the value of their income.
- Investors: The people who incurred amount on capital. Equity share holders gain because they get higher rate of dividends due to more profits. whereas, Bondholders who gets interest at fixed rate will lose because, the value of their income is fall down due to increase of prices.
- Traders, speculators, businesspeople and black-marketers gain more income because they make profits with rising prices.
- Farmers: Farmers also gain more income because there is grate rise in the value of prices for agricultural products.
Impact on production
Impact on income and employment
Impact on business and trade
Impact on the government finance
Impact on Economic growth
Trade cycle (Business cycle)
Phases of trade cycle/business cycle (Stages)
- Recovery
- Boom
- Recession
- Depression.
Phases of trade cycle
- Expansion stage: In this stage of trade cycle, entrepreneurs increase the level of investment. as a result the rate of employment and income (Economic indicators) is increased in the economy (Positive effect). Employment increases the purchasing power and it increases the demand for goods and services. when the demand for consumer goods increases, the prices also increases with the supply and leads to increase of demand for producer goods. The increase of price is depends on the investment. if the investment is more, the prices will increase and vice versa. Rising of prices will show effect on distribution of income for factors. finally the price of raw material increases more than the prices of semi finished goods. and the semi finished goods cost more than final goods. In this stage the credit facility is also more.
- Prosperity stage or Boom (Peak): In this stage the rate of investments increases more and more to earn profits. The level of production increases. The economy experiences full employment and enters a stage of over full employment.
- Recession stage: The recession stage is followed by the boom or Peak stage. The demand for goods starts declining or diminishing in this phase. Without noticing this the producers keep on producing the goods which leads to excessive supply in the market. The Economic indecators such as employment, wages, profits, output will comes down.
- Depression or Crisis Stage: in this stage all economic activities falls down. production, employment, income decreases and prices falls. There is a decline in growth of the economy. Purchasing power of money declines and there is a change in distribution of national income. The producer goods such as machinery are not utilised fully because there is a deficiency in effective demand (Effective demand refers to the ability and willingness of consumers to purchase the goods in different prices).
- Trough: It is followed by the depression stage. There is more decline in growth rate of an economy. There is more depletion in national income and expenditure. There is more decrease in prices of factors of production and supply of goods.
- Recovery: after facing depression the economy now will move to recovery stage. The rate of growth is again starts increasing gradually. Demand for goods is also increases due to less prices, and the supply is also increases. the population in the economy develops a positive attitude for investment and production increases by increasing employment. The banks also start lending money due to positive growth. depreciated capital is also replaced with new capital because of investment. This recovery continues until it reaches maximum steadiness in growth.
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